NFL Preview, Cieslinski Style

"Baseball is what we were. Football is what we have become." - Marty McGrory

And so it begins...the 2006 NFL season.

Last year's season for Steeler fans was joyous, agonizing, and all adjectives in between. Can anyone remember a season that had as many highs and lows as 2005? At least the highest point came at the end, when our boys raised the Lombardi Trophy for the first time in 26 years and NFL-record tying fifth in team history. Indeed, nothing could top the craziness that was last season...except for the offseason.

In the seven months since Super Bowl XL, Santonio Holmes has been arrested twice before every playing in a regular season game, Ben Roethlisberger nearly died in a motorcycle accident and just last week he had his appendix taken out and will miss at least the opener against the Dolphins. Hines Ward and Joey Porter made not-so-subtle comments about how their contract situations were handled, and Bill Cowher's recent purchase of a North Carolina home has fueled speculation that this year will be his last on the sidelines. Who knew that a 22-man battle royal on a field would actually be a return to calm and normalcy?

The 2006 Steelers have lost a few key components from their Super Bowl champion team, including Jerome Bettis, Kimo von Oelhoffen, and Antwaan Randle El, but there is absolutely no reason to think that this team can't win it all again. Bettis, despite being the unquestioned heart and soul of this team for the past ten years, had become a situational player in 2005, and Duce Staley and Willie Parker can easily duplicate what he did last year. As for his leadership, this team has tons of it on both sides of the ball, and finding a new motivator will not be a problem. von Oelhoffen was getting old, and Brett Keisel provides a younger, faster, and likely better replacement. As for Randle El, his abilities will be missed, but not as much as people think. He was an average receiver, catching only one TD last year, and Hines Ward and Cedric Wilson are both able to throw good passes on those tricky sneaky gadget plays. Santonio Holmes or Willie Reid are both better #3 receivers than Randle El.

As for the returning players, well, there's a reason they won it all last year. Ben Roethlisberger is in amazing shape, appendectomy notwithstanding, and when he is healthy he will show that he is a top-tier NFL quarterback. Parker was incredible in his first season as a starter, and I expect him to be even better this year. Hines Ward will put up his usual solid numbers while being the best blocking WR in football, and Heath Miller will drastically improve on his strong rookie season. The offensive line, as always, will be nearly impenetrable, and will send at least two guys to the Pro Bowl.

On defense, it's more of the same: a line that distracts the offensive line, linebackers that blitz like crazy, and defensive backs that knock the shit out of opposing players. Casey Hampton does not put up big numbers, but he is such a disruptive player that he goes to the Pro Bowl every year and is considered among the best tackles in the league. The Steelers may have the best linebacker corps in the NFL, with Larry Foote and Clark Haggans becoming emerging stars, and Joey Porter and James Farrior showing no signs of slowing down.

The secondary looks to be the Steelers' best since the Rod Woodson/Carnell Lake/Darren Perry days. Troy Polamalu might be the best defensive player in the league, as he can do just about anything. His random blitzing, incredible athleticism, and insatiable thirst for hitting give offensive coordinators migraines. Ryan Clark replaces Chris Hope at free safety...for now at least. Rookie Anthony Smith was amazing in the preseason, and it seems to be only a matter of time before he is the starter. At cornerback, Deshea Townsend is a late bloomer, and despite playing very well the past couple seasons, you have to wonder if age will start catching up to him. On the other side, Ike Taylor is young, athletic, and poised to have a breakout season. If he can hold on to some interceptions, the extension he just signed will be a brilliant investment.

The special teams are...well...good. Nothing big to say there. Jeff Reed is awesome, and Chris Gardocki is the model of consistency.

On paper, this team is just as good if not better than last year's team. However, a tougher schedule and a much stronger AFC North will make their road to a repeat a lot rougher. I look for them to go 12-4, win the division....and once again I'm not gonna pick them to win it all. They'll lose a home playoff game in the divisional round.

And now the rest of the NFL

DIVISION CHAMPS
AFC East: Miami Dolphins. They got better, and the rest of the division got a lot weaker.
AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars. Indy will miss Edgerrin James more than you think, and Jacksonville is a hell of a team.
AFC West: Denver Broncos. A decent team in a lousy division. The Chiefs might be a challenge, but they aren't as good as Denver.
Wild Card teams: Indianapolis and Kansas City.

NFC East: New York Giants. Provided Eli Manning plays better than he did at the end of '05. Washington will contend also.
NFC North: Chicago Bears. They are a mediocre team, but the rest of the North is pathetic.
NFC South: Carolina Panthers. There isn't a team in the conference that can compete with them.
NFC West: Seattle Seahawks. Arizona will end their reign in '07, but for now the 'Hawks are still the best.
Wild Card teams: Washington and St. Louis.

SUPER BOWL: Carolina over Jacksonville in the Expansion Bowl.

RANDOM PREDICTIONS

• This will finally be the year the Patriots don't make the playoffs. They have lost too many good players, and may be on the verge of rebuilding. Phil Simms and the entire ESPN workforce will kill themselves as a result of this.
• Thanks to Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson, Jake Delhomme will put up Marino-like numbers en route to the NFL MVP. His amazing season will be capped off with a Super Bowl title.
• The Bengals will go 7-9 a year after their first playoff berth since 1990. There are too many off the field issues, and that leads to problems on the field. Just ask the Portland Trailblazers.
• Arizona will go 8-8, thanks to an offense that will be nearly unstoppable, and thanks to a defense that is still ho-hum. One or two more good players on D, and the Cards are gonna be beasts.
• Detroit and Houston will also be better, but then again, how could they have gotten any worse.
• San Francisco will still suck. When you think about what that team was like in the 80s and 90s, and what they are now, it's sad.
• Terrell Owens will wear out his welcome very quickly in Dallas, and in the offseason will be seeking a trade.
• Art Shell may be back, but his Tecmo Super Bowl squad of the 80s and early 90s isn't. Even with Randy Moss, Jerry Porter, and Lamont Jordan, the Raiders are going nowhere.
• "With the first pick of the 2007 NFL Draft, the Cleveland Browns select Brady Quinn, quarterback, Notre Dame."
• "With the second pick of the 2007 NFL Draft, the New York Jets select Troy Smith, quarterback, The Ohio State University."
• The Steelers will trade up and get Tedd Ginn with the 8th pick. Okay that's wishful thinking, but damn that would be sweet.

Until next time...GO STEELERS.