Me last year after Lousiville lost in the semifinals, costing me thousands (actually it's from sophomore year when I drank a fifth of Bacardi, but that's how I felt last year).
For many college basketball and gambling enthusiasts, today is a lot like Christmas. We find out the seedings and matchups for the NCAA tournament. For many, this is also the start of three weeks that prove to be very costly and very very frustrating. I am reminded of years past, when NCAA pools that were meant to be fun for all and even more fun for one turned into disasters. There was 2003, when Pitt was a #2 seed and nearly everyone picked them to win it all, and for good reason. However, they did their usual choke in the 3rd round, and everyone's pool was shot. It was such an ugly year, the winner was determined by the Elite Eight round, as only one person got one Final Four team right. On a more personal level, there was last year, where I would have won the St. Vincent pool for a few hundred, and probably would have won a lot of money in a much larger pool if Louisville would have beaten Illinois in the semis. They didn't, of course, and I won absolutely nothing.
The past 15 years of misery have taught me many lessons about filling out a bracket pool. The most important lesson is not to bother and save yourself the trouble, I guess, but we're all gluttons for punishment. So here are some tips for when you're picking the winners of a sport played by people younger than you:
1. NEVER PICK ARIZONA. This rule really doesn't apply this year since they had a bad season and only got an 8 seed, but until the end of time this is a good one to follow. Just about every year they enter the tournament on a roll and get a high seed, and just about every year everyone picks them to either go to the Final Four or win it all. And just about every year, they lose in the second or third round. The only time this didn't happen was in 1997, when no one picked them to do anything. Lute Olsen and company may be the biggest chokers in college basketball right now, and picking them to do anything different would be a waste of your money.
2. Your favorite/local team will not win, so don't pick them. Remember my NFL previews and reviews and whatever views? I never once mentioned the Steelers and the Super Bowl in the same sentence, because I knew that once I did they would be jinxed and not make it. The result of this superstition? One for the thumb, fools. Sadly, you have to fill in the winners of these things, so jinxing your team is inevitable. I have learned my lesson, and I will never again pick Pitt or Ohio State to win it all. Your favorite team won't win, either. It's wishful thinking, and in some years it looks like it could really happen, but if you picked them, they're screwed.
3. 3-pointers = 3 rounds. Nothing in college basketball bothers me more than the recent bastardization of the 3-point line. What was once a reward or a shot of desperation or necessity has now become the focal point of a team's entire offense, and their games look like something you do on Playstation. These teams always have some dopey looking white guy (cough cough Pittsnogle) that does nothing but shoot the three, and damnit does he always freakin' make it. They always become the sleeper team and people pick them thinking they are being smart. What they don't realize is that many of these teams rely on the three because they have no inside game, and come tourney time that's a problem. An off night or a defense that will get in their faces will always lead to their demise, and once you get to the later rounds there are too many of those types of teams for them to succeed.
4. Sentimental choices are dumb choices. Teams that come out of nowhere to win their conference tournament, or teams that have some hard luck player or stupid stuff like that tug at people's hearts and convince them that they will ride that emotion to a title. This year it's Syracuse with their 13th year senior Gerry McNamara, whose overexposure on ESPN the past couple days is borderline Bostonian. Now people think they are going to do some damage in the NCAA's since they're riding such a hot streak. Here's my prediction: they're gonna lose in the first round. They spent all their energy in the Big East tourney, and with the four or five day break in between that and the first round, that momentum they had will be gone. Just like those 3-point lovin teams, teams like this just won't have the talent to go all the way.
5. Mid-majors...no. Nothing much to say here. They aren't as good as people think, and picking Gonzaga to win it all is setting yourself up for failure.
6. White men can't jump, nor can they win national titles. Remember a few years ago when Princeton had five white guys and did that slow, boring white guy offense to beat some teams? Man was that lame. If you think a team can go far in the tournament playing fundamental basketball, then you need to get out of the 50s. Not to sound stereotypical, but our people suck at basketball, and when a team of white guys goes up against a team of blacks that are stronger, faster, and more flashy, no amount of the flex offense can help you.
7. A 12 seed will beat a 5 seed. It happens every year. This year my pick is Texas A&M over Syracuse.
8. When in doubt, ask a woman. In 1998, the men in my family spent hours looking at stats and agonizing over who to pick. My mother looked at the bracket and said, "Eh, I'll pick Utah." Now she doesn't even know a basketball is round (this despite the fact my brother and I played basketball all through grade school and high school. That's 16 straight years of watching one and/or the other play), and Utah wasn't very highly regarded, so we laughed at her and thought she was on crack. Two weeks later we reached for the pipes ourselves as the Utes made it to the national championship game. For some reason, women will pick a team based on their uniforms, mascots, and a million other non-basketball reasons, and all too often they end up beating us men who do research and lab experiments to determine who will win. What are we doing wrong, men, and what is your secret, women?
9. None of these rules apply to Duke. For some reason, all these tips go out the window when you consider the Blue Devils (the Arizona one doesn't really count, unless you believe in the duality of college basketball players). They have white guys that can play, they can shoot the lights out at will, everyone picks them and wins with them, and no matter what their seed is or what is going on with their team, they are always in the thick of it at the end. Picking Duke to go far is a wise choice, since they can win a lot of games for you, and their defeat will impact everyone's pool.
There are your tips for a successful and hopefully lucrative month of March. Happy pooling, and good luck. See you next week.