In one sense I am thrilled that Freddy Sanchez has won the 2006 NL batting title. It has given the fans in Pittsburgh something to be happy about in the midst of this fourteen year hell.
But on the other hand, this remarkable accomplishment has given the Buccos' management more leverage in fooling the public into buying tickets for '07. They'll use this to show that all is not lost with the team, and fans should come out to PNC Park just in case something big happens.
The Pirates' 2006 season started with an appalling seven straight losses, effectively eliminating them from any kind of contention before Easter. Things continued to fall apart after that, as an embarassing 9-27 record in one-run games led to a 30-60 record at the All-Star break. While things improved and the Pirates went 37-35 after the break, they still finished with a 67-95 record, identical to their 2005 mark. Even with this improved play, the team still wasn't very good, and all indications are that they might not be much better next year. Here's a breakdown of each position, as well as the coaching and front office.
Catcher: Humberto Cota was the starting catcher on opening day, and that was about the highlight of his season. His .190 average was the lowest among all players with at least 100 at-bats, and when you combine that with zero home runs and five RBI, you have a player that will not be a Pirate in 2007. Ryan Doumit was pegged as the backup/starter of the future, but after some struggles at the plate, a lengthy injury, and an attempt to turn him into a first baseman and outfielder, his future at catcher seems to be in a reserve role at best.
Doumit's injury paved the way for rookie Ronny Paulino to come in and become only the second catcher in the last 37 seasons to hit .310 or better (the other being Mike Piazza; that's good company). While his fielding is a little shaky, he is still young and can improve. If and when he does, he could become one of the premier catchers in baseball.
First Base: Sean Casey was acquired in the offseason to provide veteran leadership, a steady bat, and probably a cheap marketing ploy as he is from the Pittsburgh area. However, he failed to produce, due in large part to missing six weeks with a broken back, and was sent to Detroit at the trading deadline. No real replacement was found, as Doumit, Joe Randa, Jose Hernandez, and Xavier Nady (acquired at the deadline) all spent time at first, with none of them being very impressive. Hernandez was one of the worst hitters in recent memory and was traded in August and Randa will not be back in '07 (more on him later), leaving Doumit, Nady, or an offseason pickup as the options. Doumit never played first until this year, and it showed, so unless he improves drastically at the plate and especially with the glove, the job will not be his. Nady hit well when he first came to the Burgh, but tailed off in September, only hitting .319. While his fielding is much better than Doumit's, his hitting needs work. Maybe this is where the Pirates can get a power hitting lefty?
Second Base: Jose Castillo entered the season needing to use his enormous potential a lot more consistently. After blowing up in May with six home runs in the final five games of the month, he hit only three more the rest of the year while batting .219. He finished with a relatively disappointing .253 average, but that is only part of the story. He made way too many mental errors both in the field and while running the bases. Perhaps his lowest point came in a game in July, when he got caught in a rundown twice...on two straight pitches. Getting in one is bad enough, but getting in another one ten seconds later is inexcusable, and things like that may cost him his job. His future with the team is uncertain, as they might try to put Freddy Sanchez there, in which case Castillo will probably be traded.
Shortstop: Jack Wilson bulked up in the offseason, and now he needs to trim a few pounds. He finished with a .273 average, up from .257 in '05, but still way lower than his .308 in 2004. He committed an uncharacteristic 18 errors, fifth most in the NL at the position. I'm guessing (hoping) the weight gain was the cause of this, and by losing 10-15 pounds he can get his form back. He was a fixture in the second spot of the batting order in '06, and I see no reason he won't be there next year.
Third Base: Joe Randa was brought back to Pittsburgh after nearly a decade of productive hitting in Kansas City and a couple other places to fill the glaring need at third. He was awful at the start of the season, and then got hurt and had to miss a long period of time. Enter the Dirty One...Freddy Sanchez. Considered at the start of the year to be nothing more than a bench warming utility infielder, all Sanchez did was hit...and hit, and hit, and hit. By July he was leading the league in hitting, but Dave Littlefield still insisted Randa was the man at third. After a couple more multi-hit games for Sanchez, Littlefield changed his stance, and Randa became the bench warming utility infielder. Sanchez finished the year with a .344 average, becoming the first Pirate batting champ since Bill Madlock in 1983. To make matters better, Freddy's defense was phenomenal, leaving absolutely no doubt in anyone's minds as to his ability to play. In 2007, Sanchez will either be back at third, or take Castillo's place at second. If the latter happens, look for Jose Bautista to possibly replace him. Or maybe Aramis Ramirez, if he becomes a free agent?
Right Field: Jeromy Burnitz was signed and overpaid to be the left handed, power hitting right fielder. While he did manage to hit 16 home runs, he didn't hit much else, and was in no way worth the $6 million he was paid. He was eventually benched in favor of a platoon of Doumit, Bautista, and Nady. Burnitz will not be back, and who plays in right in 2007 depends on where everyone else plays and who the Pirates acquire in the offseason.
Center Field: Chris Duffy, after an impressive showing late in 2005, was the starting CF and leadoff hitter at the beginning of the season. Manager Jim Tracy tweaked with his hitting style, and the results were disastrous. After batting .194 in the first month or so, he was sent to the minors, only he refused to go and left baseball completely for a couple weeks. He eventually came back, and after dominating in the minors, made it back to Pittsburgh, where he hit .315 and finished with a .255 average, which is pretty good considering what had happened. Even more encouraging was his base stealing, as he caught 26 bases on 27 attempts. While Doumit was in exile/the minors, Jose Bautista and Nate McLouth shared duties in center until McLouth was injured. It seems as though Duffy may have earned the starting job back, with McLouth as a very capable reserve. Waiting in the wings, however, is Andrew McCutcheon. He's still very young and will start the season in AA Altoona, but he is a potential five-tool player, and he could be a monster when he gets to the majors.
Left Field: Jason Bay is the Pirates' left fielder; no doubt about it. He had another solid season, hitting a career high 35 homers and driving in 109 runs, also a personal best. He even got to start the All-Star Game in his home stadium, thanks to a huge marketing campaign. That being said, he is still not an elite player, and that is due to his horrible clutch hitting. His average with runners in scoring position was a weak .242, hardly acceptable for a player of his caliber. Countless times he could have broken a game open or kept the Pirates alive with a timely hit, and countless times he disappointed. If he can keep the same power numbers while improving on his hitting in tight situations, Bay will become a household name, and the Pirates will win a lot more games.
Starting Pitching: Way too much youth here. Oliver Perez came into the season as the most experienced starter on the Pirates' staff, and he did not set a good example. He never regained his 2004 form, and in fact he got progressively worse until he was traded to the Mets. Kip Wells missed a large part of the season because of a shoulder problem, and when he did come back he stunk and was also sent away. Zach Duke and Paul Maholm didn't match their insane 2005 numbers, but no one expected them to. They took some bad lumps this year, and we can only hope that it was a learning experience and they will be better in '07. Tom Gorzelanny came up from Indy for the last few months, and was solid if unspectacular. Victor Santos was garbage, and I don't understand why we even got him. He didn't pitch the last four weeks of the season, and he will not be back next year. Shawn Chacon was acquired in a trade with the Yankees, and was also pretty bad, and hopefully will also not be back. The brightest spot was by far Ian Snell, who went 14-11 and had a strikeout rate of 8.2 per nine innings. If he give up fewer home runs, he'll be an ace for years to come.
Relief Pitching: Mike Gonzalez converted all of his save opportunities before getting injured and missing the last six weeks of the season. He has firmly entrenched himself as the Bucs' closer. When he got hurt, Salomon Torres took over for him and got 12 saves in 13 chances. Torres also tied Kent Tekulve's franchise record with 94 pitching appearances. John Grabow also had a strong year, while Damaso Marte didn't. It seemed like every time Marte came into a close game, you saw an L next his name in the box score. He did not impress me, and will in all likelihood not be back next year. Twenty-two year old Matt Capps, who before this year didn't get above A ball, was a surprising addition to the roster, and was remarkable all year. He pitched in 83 games, one shy of the rookie record, and walked only twelve batters, five of which were intentional. While he tailed off late in the year due to fatigue, this hard throwing righty will be a fixture in the Pirates bullpen for many years. In 2007 look for men such as Shane Youman, Jonah Bayliss, and Josh Sharpless to compete for the open spots in the Pirates' pen.
Coaching: Pitching coach Jim Colborn tried to change the young starters' mechanics in spring training, and the results were less than pleasant. But overall, the new coaching staff, led by manager Jim Tracy, did a respectable job. The biggest problem I had with Tracy was his unwillingness to criticize veterans and accept blame when the Pirates lost, and his willingness to criticize young players and accept credit when the Pirates won. He never lost his players, though, and while I would like to see more fire and intensity instead of the usual calm and cliched manager quotes, I like what he has done with this team and hope he improves them even more next year.
Management: Dave Littlefield is an idiot. Plain and simple. He was given more money to work with, and spent $16 million on Casey, Burnitz, Randa, and Jose "Human Windmill" Hernandez. His attempts to justify the moves he has made have had the tone of "well, we're a crappy team and we can't get any better". Other teams with similar payrolls have had some amount of success, while the Pirates keep signing has beens and trading young stars for career minor leaguers. With the short right field porch at PNC Park, the fact that there hasn't been a legit power hitting lefty since Brian Giles is inexcusable. Littlefield got us Bay and (by some bizarre stroke of luck) Freddy, but the bad moves he has made far outweigh the good ones. However much money he has to spend on the 2007 team, he needs to spend it right, or he should be looking for a new job a year from now.
Ownership: G. Ogden Nutting and his son, the majority owners of the Pirates, never come out in public. You never see them at a game, you never see them at a press conference, and you probably never will. They're too busy counting the money you foolish fans give them to watch fireworks and collect bobbleheads. All the while, they send Kevin McClatchy, who is the Pirates president but NOT the guy making the business decisions, out there to get slaughtered by the fans and media. While the ownership did up the payroll for 2006, they are still light years behind other franchises, and if the estimates on their annual profits are correct, they can definitely afford to spend more. But then again, if you were making $20 million a year tricking the public into buying a crap product, what incentive would you have to invest more money?
Outlook for 2007: Folks, do not be fooled by this recent surge and improved play. Even though the Pirates played above .500 after the All-Star break, they were still outscored by a significant amount, and showed virtually now power. Most of the players on the roster now would be lucky to ride the bench for a team like the Yankees or Mets. Even with one or two significant additions, this still isn't a powerhouse team.
That being said, there are still spots that need filled immediately. The Pirates need a lefty power hitter desperately, as they are letting that stadium go to waste without one. Likewise, they need a good veteran (not old, just a veteran) right handed starting pitcher to complement the young lefties they have now. Those are the urgent needs at the major league level, but the problems are throughout each level of the organization. With the exception of McCutcheon, there are no real prospects in the Pirates' minor league system. The AAA team is made of 30 year old journeymen, the AA team is older than the Marlins, and the lower classes are years away, if there is any talent there at all. Other teams have invested millions into Asia and Latin America, while the most Latin investment the Pirates have made recently has been Raul Mondesi and Benito Santiago. They need to start signing and developing some of those young Dominican and Puerto Rican kids (especially in Puerto Rico, where the "Clemente played for us" sales pitch still has to have some merit), and also start competing for the Japanese and Korean stars looking to ply their trade with the big boys.
I can't even begin to speculate what the roster and lineup will look like for 2007. There are too many variables on the roster now and many more that could be on the roster by spring training. One thing is for sure: it doesn't look like the team will improve much next year, but that might not matter. Next year will mark the 10th anniversary of the 97 "Why Not Us" Pirates finishing only four games behind the division champ Astros in the NL Comedy Central. It looks as though the division is headed for another down year, as every team tumbled the last two months of the season. Maybe it won't take much to compete for the title, which will be a good thing, since the Pirates probably won't have much.
